It was big news last week when various people tried to use Google trends to predict who the winner of American Idol 2009 would be. Using volume of searches, accounting for known demographic and geographic information, and considering the trends from prior seasons, they felt it was pretty much a sure thing that Adam Lambert would win. Perhaps you heard the news, though, that Kris Allen won the talent contest.
Those of you who have been following MatterMeter may have noticed that MatterMeter correctly predicted the outcome, giving Adam a rating of 67% and Kris a rating of 86%. Let’s just say that to remain focused on the issue at hand here, we won’t talk about sample sizes or confidence intervals associated with these numbers. That’s our little secret.
How is it that so many people predicted incorrectly? Surely, the sample sizes on which the Google trends analyses were based ran into the thousands and possibly millions. Surely, search terms are a reasonable proxy for interest in a topic. Statistically, it seemed to be a reasonable bet.
The missing link, not the Lemur link also discovered this week, is that Google trends does not evaluate feelings or sentiments. Were people searching so fervently for Adam Lambert because he could be counted on to deliver a stunning vocal performance or because he could be counted on to deliver a strange song interpretation that would certainly go viral. Were people searching for Adam Lambert not because they were excited to purchase his upcoming CD but rather because they couldn’t believe that his songs might actually end up on a CD? (For the record, our team thinks Adam and Kris are fabulously talented!)
I’d advise you to keep an eye on MatterMeter and EvoListen next year. We just might get it right again.
For 24 hours, starting May 13, 2009, MatterMeter was on the TechCrunch CrunchCam. It was just too silly a proposition to pass up! Here are a few stills from the day, including the whiteboard going up, the dog going for a walk, the sombrero segway guy, and someone checking out the board.
The Conversition team had several exciting days last week, all related to MatterMeter! In reverse order….
Third, and most exciting, Mashable, which describes themselves as “the world’s largest blog focused exclusively on Web 2.0 and Social Networking news with more than 5 million monthly pageviews,” in association with Microsoft BizSpark, selected www.MatterMeter.com for a review. What day did this happen? It happened May 7 which is Jean’s birthday! Of course! Adam Ostrow called MatterMeter ‘intriguing,’ ‘interesting,’ and ‘very frank.’ We’ve read the review about 43 times so now it’s your turn. Read it here.
Second, we launched a great new MatterMeter widget which you can easily download to your own blog, website, or homepage. Click here to get yours!
First, we welcomed a new member to the team, Jeremy, our MatterMeter man! Welcome to the ride Jeremy! It’s only just begun.
To celebrate the launch of MatterMeter, we announced on Twitter that we would give a MatterMeter t-shirt to the first person to DM us with the correct description of the easter egg on the website. Congratulations to FastIrish, a retired marine, for finding it! We will be giving away more t-shirts in the future so watch for your chance to get one!
We’re very excited about the interest taken in MatterMeter after being open to the public for only a week. We’ve already registered more than 4 000 visits and 30 000 page views! Google, 30 Rock, and IKEA have climbed to the top of our brand MatterBoard while Nike, Kentucky Fried Chicken, and Fox have drifted to the bottom. If that doesn’t sit right with you, you will just have to visit MatterMeter and make sure you matterize them yourself!
Based on your feedback, we’ve made some great additions to MatterMeter this last week. More will follow, but here are just a few of the things we’ve added so far:
- Live feed of who is joining, matterizing, following and replying
- Random matters (we are researchers you know)
- Top and bottom matters for today, this week, and this month
- Favorite the brands you are most interested in
